Colorado is having a troublesome 12 months. Snowfall was down almost 60% over the vacations, leading to solely about 11% of skiable terrain being opened in December and skier visits are down 20%. Vail resorts, the most important ski operator, is getting hit laborious as seen within the inventory chart. Is that the actual story, look on the site visitors counts by way of the tunnels, barely a blip the final 4 years, are the headlines incorrect on the ski season?
What the media is saying concerning the Colorado ski season and what the numbers are displaying
We’ve little doubt had a troublesome snow 12 months by any metric, however does this actually imply a disaster for ski cities? Dwelling within the mountains, I haven’t felt a considerable slowdown, however each information article I learn it sounds just like the sky is falling. I used to be not satisfied so I needed to see if I used to be proper or if the media reviews have been right.
To find out what was really taking place, I went on to the Colorado Division of Transportation to see what the site visitors counts have been by way of the tunnel. The overwhelming majority of resorts if they’re being pushed to need to move by way of the tunnel together with Keystone, Copper Mountain, Vail, Breckenridge, Steamboat, and Aspen. The tunnel counts in principle ought to present a drastic decline in car site visitors if visitation is down drastically.
How did I decide that ski site visitors is about the identical in 2026?
I checked out CDOT information for 23, 24, 25 and the primary two months of 2026 each on a month-to-month common and on a day by day common foundation to see if there was an enormous change in site visitors counts. I graphed the uncooked information and you may see the 2 graphs above and beneath.
If there was an enormous change in conduct, we might see an enormous decline in site visitors volumes on I70 heading as much as the mountains. Sadly, whatever the dire predictions, this didn’t occur, we’re seeing site visitors about the identical. Try the chart above and the chart beneath. Lengthy and brief, though ski resorts themselves have been damage because of decrease visitation, guests are nonetheless coming to the Colorado mountains, they only won’t be snowboarding as a lot. As an alternative they’re buying, going to the recent springs in Steamboat, snowmobiling, mountain climbing, and so on…
Vail Resorts Earnings present misery in ski trade
On the flip aspect, Vail launched present earnings, and the outcomes weren’t fairly. Vail’s inventory value is down 50% previously 5 years and the pattern retains getting worse.
The dramatic lack of snowfall within the Rockies “restricted our means to open terrain and negatively impacted visitation and ancillary spending for each native and vacation spot visitors in the course of the interval,” Chief Govt Officer Rob Katz stated in a assertion Thursday.
In September, Vail predicted fiscal 2026 earnings of $842 million to $898 million earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
For the present season, skier visits to Vail’s resorts in North America, which embrace properties in Colorado, Utah and British Columbia, have been down 20% from a 12 months earlier by way of Jan. 4. Raise income was down 1.8%, the corporate stated.
A low snow 12 months might reshape Colorado ski actual property—discover how weaker seasons affect costs, demand, and long-term funding threat.
Ski resorts primarily based on location might be impacted in another way
The affect of a low snow 12 months on ski resorts round Colorado is not going to be uniform. For instance:
Drive up communities like Breckenridge, Copper, Winter Park:
Drive up resorts will see extra instant ache from a low snow 12 months. With restricted terrain much less drive up site visitors from Denver will come to Breckenridge, Winter Park, Copper Mountain, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, and Loveland. With out snow, many is not going to make the trek as much as the mountains. This may even cut back a variety of weekend overnights in lots of of those cities. The saving grace is that drive up site visitors from Denver will not be as worthwhile as out of state guests so the true income affect is not going to be as unhealthy because the numbers counsel.
Vacation spot resorts like Steamboat, Vail, Aspen carried out higher
No less than over the vacations vacation spot resorts like Steamboat, Vail, and Aspen fared higher. Many out of state guests had deliberate journeys and got here to the assorted ski cities whatever the ski circumstances. Though the precise ski hills weren’t doing nice, the assorted cities appeared to be common in regard to busyness which suggests at the least over the vacation season the impacts to most companies is not going to be enormous though the snow was horrible.
Is there a delayed response to the low snow 12 months?
Sarcastically, even after a troublesome winter, summer time bookings are up significantly: “All the things booked in January was down so far as winter arrivals go, however bookings for arrival in Might are up 16%. Bookings for arrival in June are up 3%. That’s folks wanting downfield,” Foley stated.
“Occupancy for the summer time at this level is up simply over 8% and (common day by day fee) is just about consistent with inflation, so the summer time is wanting sturdy. That could be — however we don’t actually know but — a advantage of a poor snow season.”
What’s the affect of low snow on ski actual property?
December is usually not a giant month for ski purchases, so the information will not be actually displaying a lot. With that stated, from what I’ve seen and felt within the varied ski cities, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of an affect to date. Many ski cities have advanced during the last 10 years as true 12 months spherical locations which ought to mitigate the affect of a low snow 12 months.
Luckily in virtually each ski city there’s restricted stock and little or no if any spec constructing so I don’t see a big impact from a low snow 12 months. I’d look ahead to a inventory market correction or if there’s a bigger actual property correction in bigger metro markets to foretell a downturn in ski actual property.
Nightly leases in Drive up ski cities will damage
Though total ski actual property costs is not going to have a lot affect. Homeowners of nightly leases particularly in locations like Breckenridge, Winter Park, Copper, and so on… will certainly really feel the sting of a low snow 12 months. Non vacation weekends are doubtless down considerably as a entrance vary skier would possibly simply come for the day versus making a weekend out of it with a great snow 12 months. I’d anticipate bookings in most of the drive up markets to be down considerably which is able to hit house owners money circulate laborious.
Snowfall down however sky not falling on ski actual property
It has been a file low 12 months for snowfall in Colorado ski nation. Dwelling in Colorado for nearly 30 years I’ve by no means seen the snowpack so low and what has made it worse is that heat temps have melted a lot of the snowpack we’ve got acquired.
The low snow is hitting resort firms laborious with Vail reporting visitation down 20% at lots of its Rocky mountain resorts. Luckily most of the vacation spot guests nonetheless got here for the vacations which ought to decrease the income hit for many companies over the December/January time-frame.
Trying on the information above, tunnel site visitors will not be displaying enormous modifications in site visitors patterns with 2026 solely down 4% from December 25 and February solely down 1%
Though the snow pack has been horrible, I haven’t seen this carry over to ski actual property. Most ski cities are absolutely constructed out and have change into 12 months spherical locations with plenty of visitation now within the Summer time and fall seasons which ought to assist decrease one unhealthy season. My intestine says that the low snowfall is a blip for actual property and won’t have a lot lasting affect a method or one other, however particular person enterprise could have far reaching impacts relying on how they’re positioned available in the market.
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly actual property blogs primarily based on his actual property expertise as a lender and property proprietor. He’s the proprietor of Fairview Industrial Lending. Glen has been revealed as an skilled in laborious cash lending, actual property valuation, financing, and varied different actual property matters in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Actual Property Journal, Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors Journal, The Actual Deal actual property information, the CO Biz Journal, The Denver Put up, The Scotsman mortgage dealer information, Mortgage Skilled America and varied different nationwide publications.
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